BITCOIN AHR999 INDEX CHART
What is the Bitcoin AHR999 Index?
The AHR999 Index is a Bitcoin valuation model that combines the 200-day moving average (SMA200) and a long-term logarithmic regression curve to identify price extremes. By comparing the square of Bitcoin's current price against both its accumulation cost and projected growth path, this index helps traders and investors detect historically undervalued or overvalued zones.
What the AHR999 Index measures
The AHR999 Index is a Bitcoin valuation model developed by a Chinese crypto blogger, AHR999, designed to assess whether Bitcoin is in an accumulation zone or an overbought state relative to its historical cost basis and long-term logarithmic growth curve. The indicator combines two components: the ratio of current price to the 200-day average purchase cost of Bitcoin, and the ratio of current price to a fitted exponential growth curve.
Reading low and high index values
When both ratios are low simultaneously, the AHR999 index produces its lowest readings — signaling that Bitcoin is trading well below both its average cost basis and its long-term growth trend. Historically, values below 0.45 have coincided with significant accumulation opportunities that preceded major bull market runs. Readings above 1.2 indicate price is significantly above both benchmarks, typically characteristic of late-cycle conditions.
Why it was built around dollar-cost averaging
The index is particularly popular among Chinese retail investors and was designed with a dollar-cost averaging (DCA) perspective in mind. The original framework suggests that values below 0.45 are ideal for aggressive accumulation, values between 0.45 and 1.2 are suitable for steady DCA purchases, and values above 1.2 warrant caution and reduced buying.
The assumption behind the model
Like all logarithmic regression models, the AHR999 Index assumes Bitcoin will continue to grow along its historical curve — an assumption that becomes less reliable the further the projection extends. Use it alongside the Rainbow Chart, Power Law Model, and Stock-to-Flow for a multi-perspective view of Bitcoin's long-term valuation.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the AHR999 Index?
AHR999 is a Bitcoin valuation model that combines two ratios: price against a long-run dollar-cost-averaging cost basis, and price against a logarithmic growth curve fitted to Bitcoin's history. It was created by a Chinese crypto blogger of the same name to judge whether Bitcoin is cheap or expensive relative to its own trend.
What does a low AHR999 reading mean?
A low reading means both underlying ratios are depressed at once, so Bitcoin is trading well below its historical growth curve and below the average accumulation cost. Historically those conditions have clustered around deep bear-market lows. It describes valuation relative to history, not a timing signal.
What does a high reading indicate?
High readings mean price has stretched far above both the growth curve and the average cost basis, which historically has coincided with late-cycle conditions. As with the low end, the index says where price sits against its own past, and markets can stay stretched for a long time.
Why is AHR999 associated with DCA?
It was designed from a dollar-cost-averaging perspective, with zones intended to suggest when steady accumulation has historically been favourable and when it has not. That framing is why it is used more as a long-horizon accumulation guide than as a trading indicator.
What are the limits of this model?
Like every logarithmic regression model, it assumes Bitcoin keeps growing along its historical curve. If that curve flattens as the asset matures, the bands drift away from reality and past thresholds stop meaning what they used to. Treat it as one lens among several rather than a rule.