BITCOIN AHR999 INDEX CHART
What is the Bitcoin AHR999 Index?
The AHR999 Index is a Bitcoin valuation model that combines the 200-day moving average (SMA200) and a long-term logarithmic regression curve to identify price extremes. By comparing the square of Bitcoin's current price against both its accumulation cost and projected growth path, this index helps traders and investors detect historically undervalued or overvalued zones.
The AHR999 Index is a Bitcoin valuation model developed by a Chinese crypto blogger, AHR999, designed to assess whether Bitcoin is in an accumulation zone or an overbought state relative to its historical cost basis and long-term logarithmic growth curve. The indicator combines two components: the ratio of current price to the 200-day average purchase cost of Bitcoin, and the ratio of current price to a fitted exponential growth curve.
When both ratios are low simultaneously, the AHR999 index produces its lowest readings — signaling that Bitcoin is trading well below both its average cost basis and its long-term growth trend. Historically, values below 0.45 have coincided with significant accumulation opportunities that preceded major bull market runs. Readings above 1.2 indicate price is significantly above both benchmarks, typically characteristic of late-cycle conditions.
The index is particularly popular among Chinese retail investors and was designed with a dollar-cost averaging (DCA) perspective in mind. The original framework suggests that values below 0.45 are ideal for aggressive accumulation, values between 0.45 and 1.2 are suitable for steady DCA purchases, and values above 1.2 warrant caution and reduced buying.
Like all logarithmic regression models, the AHR999 Index assumes Bitcoin will continue to grow along its historical curve — an assumption that becomes less reliable the further the projection extends. Use it alongside the Rainbow Chart, Power Law Model, and Stock-to-Flow for a multi-perspective view of Bitcoin's long-term valuation.