PUELL MULTIPLE INDICATOR
What is the Puell Multiple Indicator?
The Puell Multiple index measures Bitcoin's market cycle by highlighting times when Bitcoin may be overbought or underbought based on miner revenue data, taking the daily issuance in USD and dividing it by its 365-day moving average. High values may signal market tops, as revenue greatly exceeds the yearly average, and low values suggest revenue is below the average, potentially marking undervalued periods.
The Puell Multiple is a Bitcoin on-chain indicator that evaluates miner revenue relative to its one-year historical average. It is calculated by dividing the daily value of Bitcoin issuance — the number of newly minted coins multiplied by their current USD price — by the 365-day moving average of that same daily issuance value. The result oscillates above and below 1.0: high readings indicate miners are earning far more than their recent norm; low readings indicate they are earning far less.
Miners represent a structurally important source of sell pressure in Bitcoin's market. Unlike most investors, miners have ongoing fixed operating costs — electricity, hosting fees, and hardware amortization — that must be paid in fiat regardless of Bitcoin's price. When the Puell Multiple is elevated (historically above 4.0), miners are incentivized to sell aggressively, and this condition has reliably coincided with Bitcoin cycle tops. When it is suppressed (historically below 0.5), miners are earning far below average — a sign of deep capitulation that has historically marked some of Bitcoin's best long-term buying opportunities.
Created by on-chain analyst David Puell, the indicator has been validated across every major Bitcoin market cycle. The 2013, 2017, and 2021 cycle tops all saw the Puell Multiple spike into deeply red territory, while the bear market troughs of 2015, 2018–2019, and 2022 saw it compress into the green accumulation zone. Bitcoin halvings naturally reset the indicator by cutting block rewards in half overnight — which is why halving events have historically marked the beginning of a new miner profitability cycle and the early stages of the next bull market.
The Puell Multiple works best as part of a multi-indicator framework. At extremes, its readings are meaningful and actionable on their own. In the middle range, the signal is less directionally clear and should be weighted alongside broader cycle indicators like MVRV Z-Score, NUPL, and Hash Ribbons. Investors who integrate the Puell Multiple into their analysis gain a direct view into the economic incentives of Bitcoin's most structurally important participants — the miners who secure the network and, in doing so, shape a significant share of Bitcoin's sell-side supply dynamics.